Improved harvest yields and steady prices for oilseed rape are leaving a modest margin for UK growers this year.
Delivered oilseed rape prices stood at £414/t on 16 September, following a rally of support across Europe.
Paris rapeseed futures lifted by 2% in the past week, to open at €472/t (£410/t) on 17 September.
Traders say this short-term uplift has been driven by two key factors: a 10% duty imposed on Ukrainian rapeseed exports and a lack of farmer selling.
United Oilseeds commodity trading manager Nick Hobson said prices were currently seeing a little bit of a rebound and the market kept creeping up.
“You have got a double whammy of European farmers not wanting to sell at current levels and less product being exported out of Ukraine right now, which is tightening short term supplies,” he said.
However, he warned that oilseeds markets could come under pressure later in the year, due to the expectation of large supplies globally.
Mr Hobson said: “The reality is, there are a lot of oilseeds out there in the world.
“Palm oil hit a 20-month high in stocks earlier in September. which has weighed on the market.
“There was a small yield decrease in US soya beans, but then there was an increase in harvest area, which meant the production figure went up a bit in the US.”
Ongoing trade disputes between China and both the US and Canada are also having an impact on global trade flows for soya beans and canola.
One merchant added that, if the market looked flat and you would get paid the same amount today as you would for a May contract, it made sense to sell earlier to improve cashflow.
Domestic market
The total UK rapeseed crop is forecast to be up on the year, despite being grown on the smallest planted area in more than four decades.
The AHDB has estimated average yields at 3.7t/ha and projected UK OSR production at 896,000t for 2025, an increase of 9% on the year.
Meanwhile, United Oilseeds has estimated harvest yields at just shy of 4t/ha in England and 5t/ha in Scotland.
Mr Hobson said for most growers it had been a good year in terms of yields, despite some losses to the planted area due to slug and pigeon damage.
“There is some renewed interest in oilseed rape. We are seeing people feeling more comfortable growing more of it, and we are seeing people who have initially been out for five or so years come back into it,” he said.
Recent rainfall across most of the UK has provided some relief for growers with crops already in the ground for next year and may encourage further plantings.