Volatile markets still a feature

Posted: 19 Oct
Trader's View by Owen Cligg

Rapeseed prices have been volatile this week as currency and the Matif have both fluctuated. Ex farm prices in England are hovering around £320.00 ex farm, whilst you will need to wait until the new year to approach those prices in Scotland.
The US soya is progressing with reports of good yields on crops already harvested, but also likely quality problems on those still in the field. The upshot though is that US ending stocks will have to increase whilst China is reluctant to buy US origin. This is likely to keep the pressure on US prices, but having limited markets for US soyabeans doesn’t necessarily mean the price of other oilseeds will also be low.

Argentinian and Brazilian soyabeans are trading at big premiums and also rapeseed remains at a large price differential over US beans. Europe is getting maxed out on crushing soya beans, which means less rapeseed is getting crushed.

However, the shortage of rapeseed, rapeoil and rapemeal should mean that all 3 commodities should retain their healthy premiums. The main danger will be the onset of the Argentinian soya harvest in the spring, which will mean larger quantities of soyoil and soyameal available to compete in the biodiesel and protein markets respectively.

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