The main focus on the oilseeds market this week has been the rise in soyabean prices as they reach 30 month highs. Good Chinese demand continues from the US, whilst Brazilian stocks are low and plantings delayed.
Compounding matters, Argentinian farmers are holding on to stocks as fund buyers look to hold near record longs. Rapeseed prices are following, albeit not at the same rate, as a high rapeoil price only serves to make biodiesel margins more difficult to achieve.
English rapeseed prices are in a range of £345 to £350 ex farm for November, whilst Scotland is £335 to £340 ex farm. Currency still remains an unknown and any dips below £1=1.10 euros will certainly support UK prices.
We are still hoping the plant at Erith will be on line in October, but it would seem imports are likely to take preference over UK deliveries.The spectre of a large Australian canola crop is still in the background but most commentators think it will be needed due to the shortfall in EU supplies.
New crop prices are still supported given dryness in Ukraine and France, whilst the bullish soya market also helps. A discount of 5 euros of November 2021 to November 2020 Matif suggests prices will not be too far behind levels being achieved this season.
The October export program for feed beans is progressing and prices are relatively well bid in excess of £205 ex farm. Human consumption beans offer only small premiums so that market is unlikely to feature to the same extent as previous years. However, increasing protein prices are likely to support domestic compound demand, if they have already not covered on other protein sources.
The PGRO is optimistic that pulse plantings will continue to rise as demand for peas and beans is likely to increase.
Spring oat quality has been surprisingly good this harvest and millers are happy to take high kg/hl spring oats to make up for the poor winter oat production.
Defra’s latest production estimate on oats is 1.016 million tonnes with an average yield of 4.8 tonnes per hectare. This is similar to last season's production albeit from a bigger area.
That suggests we will need to make some exports but, at current low prices in relation to wheat with Brexit allowing, we will no doubt be competitive to get these moving.
If wheat plantings return to more normal levels, we would expect oat plantings to be lower, but a higher yield will no doubt stabilise production at around 1 million tonnes. Oat contracts are still available for harvest 2021 for any interested parties.
A wide range of Cover, Forage and Environmental crop and Grass and Maize from Hubbards Seeds is available from United OiIseeds Area Managers or call 01380 729200