Markets still on a wild ride

Posted: 22 Jul
Break Crop Trader's View: By Owen Cligg, Trading Manager

Oilseed rape

Harvest has now started in the South with first impressions of average to good yields. Initial demand is quickly being met and we envisage most of the harvest occurring in August ending up in store. There is already a large import programme lined up which should keep crushers immediate demand fulfilled.

Prices on the world stage have been volatile, mainly following a steep rise in Canadian futures prices to over 900 Canadian dollars -which represents a significant premium over Matif values. Canadian prices have since fallen back to around 850 Canadian dollars, as soyoil prices have fallen and Canadian production may not be as bad as some have feared.

Soyoil prices are likely coming under pressure as both Argentina and the US are discussing a review of biofuel policies, which may reduce mandated levels of biodiesel. Also Canadian production figures are varying between 15 and 20 million tonnes with some showers in the forecast. Some commentators fear rain may be too late as the flowering will have finished in many cases and low potential has already been set.

UK harvest prices are around £430 ex at time of writing, and a forward discount to harvest 2022 of £65/tonne equates to £375 ex which still represents good value against historical values.
The situation in Canada bears careful consideration and reduced supply there should be bullish for oat prices. Some UK oats maybe combined next week but, if reports of low bushel weights on barley are replicated, this should keep milling prices at a premium over feed.
We have slots for early combined August beans at a premium over new crop prices, but most compounders seem to be well covered until October. The new crop export market is thin, with buyers and sellers far apart. If good yields occur the general consensus is that current prices are likely to fall.

We are still over £200 ex for new crop beans, which will probably be worth locking into.

Whatever your individual OSR seed requirement, whether it is Conventional, Hybrid, Clearfield, Clubroot, HOLL or HEAR, United Oilseeds can supply it.  Please call your local Area Manager or Tel: 01380 729 200

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