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Rapeseed Markets on a Roller Coaster

Date Added: 11/08/2017

Trader's View by Owen Cligg, Trading Manager United Oilseeds

UK rapeseed prices have been volatile this week as a mixture of currency, rapeseed and soya information has caused a heady mix.

Currently harvest prices are trading around £310.00 ex farm whilst October onwards is trading at £320.00 ex plus.

The £ has now weakened to below £1 = €1.10 euros which is adding significant value to sterling prices. Oil World reported this week that rapeseed prices were potentially explosive as issues still remain around the Canadian and Australian crops. In Europe, the French rapeseed crop has been upgraded to over 5.2 million due to better than expected yields.  However, German, Polish and the Baltic crops are likely to be downgraded due to the current poor weather causing problems with harvest.

The UK crop seems to be confirmed at over 2.1 million tonnes as yield results in the north are being maintained at current pleasing levels. Overall, the EU crop should come out at around 22 million tonnes but this will still require imports from the Ukraine and Australia. The main bearish action this week arose from Thursday’s USDA report, which increased the yield expectation of soya from 48 to 49.4 lbs per bushel against trade expectations. This caused soya futures to fall 33 lbs per bushel on the day and matif rapeseed to fall by €4.00 euros.  However, the fall in currency and a recovering matif has today meant the effect on prices in sterling has been limited.

Prospects also remain good for harvest 2018 as ex farm prices are bid over £300 ex farm. There could also be concerns over German plantings as current yields there are not attractive and a delayed wheat harvest will exclude some plantings.

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