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Weather markets worry buyers

Date Added: 07/07/2017

By Owen Cligg, Trading Manager, United Oilseeds

Rapeseed harvest has started in the south of England with a wide range of reported yields from between 3.0 to 4.0 tonnes per hectare. Harvest is also progressing well in France, but we are still awaiting real yield data. Our opinion is that yields may be a little better than expected at or around average as sunshine levels have been good this season. However the early harvest has no doubt curtailed the growing season and hence potential yield is somewhat limited.

Prices in the UK have benefited from weaker sterling, which is now £1=1.13 euros, whilst matif futures prices have been pulled in different directions by harvest pressure and a higher Chicago soyabeans. Currently harvest prices are well bid at £300 to £305 ex farm, rising to £310 to £315 for November.
At the time of writing Chicago soyabeans are trading over $10.00 per bushel, which represents a significant rise from 2 weeks ago when prices were languishing at not much more than $9.00 a bushel. A deterioration in crop ratings has occurred as weather conditions have been very dry in the Northern plains which is spreading in to other areas of the US and Canada.. This has also been responsible for the rise in spring wheat futures and also a large rise in Winnipeg canola futures.  Winnipeg futures are now looking expensive compared to matif which will probably result  in a correction soon of either higher matif or lower Winnipeg.
As regards harvest 2018 matif August futures are trading at a 10 euro discount to the current August contract. This will still result in prices being valued in a range of £290 to £300 ex farm. If you are thinking of buying new seed, we would like to recommend the new top candidate conventional variety, Django. Please go to the following link for further details

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