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Prices end the week on the defensive....

Date Added: 10/10/2014

By Owen Cligg, Trading Manager, United Oilseeds ...

The USDA report today increased US yields of soybeans, but not by quite as much as the trade were expecting. The soybean yield was increased from 46.6 to 47.1 bushels per acre, whilst 2015 carryout was pegged at 450 million bushels, slightly less than the previous report due to a lower 2014 carryout. Soybean futures reacted by trading mainly unchanged.

Matif oilseed futures recovered some of their earlier losses, but remain at about 8 euros lower than prices earlier in the week. Ex farm prices of oilseed rape in England have subsequently retreated from recent £240/tonne level back to £235/tonne.

Most commentators now believe the EU oilseed rape crop is close 24 million tonnes which will likely be close to crushing demand. If we therefore assume EU imports at 2 million tonnes and higher than exports, there will need to be an increase in ending stocks. Whilst this is not necessarily bullish for prices, there is the impression that EU plantings will be well down and have also suffered from flea beetle damage, this could well provide some support for 2015 harvest prices.



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