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Chicago markets continue bearish view

Date Added: 05/09/2014

By Owen Cligg, Trading Manager, United Oilseeds

Chicago soyabeans fell to contract lows this week, as the November tested $10/bushel on Thursday briefly trading at $10.01. Reports of initial yields remain better than expected and condition of the main crop improved by 2% in the good to excellent category. Falls in the Matif oilseed rape were limited by a falling euro which has dipped below $1.30 as a result of falling interest rates in the euro zone.

Prices for rapeseed in England remain at around £240.00 ex depending on haulage to the mill, but there is little carry going forward as shorts and crushers are only looking to cover immediate requirements. Scottish rapeseed remains at up to a £10 discount as it is reliant on thin export trade. However at least the better yields there are helping to offset the poorer price. Throughout the EU growers are reluctant sellers, but crushers seem to be getting through on Black Sea supplies - 190,000 tonnes was imported from Ukraine in July alone. Of the 2 million tonnes of Ukrainian exportable surplus, we expect 1 million tonnes to come to the EU, the recent troubles and currency devaluation seem to have only made the Ukrainian farmer a more ready seller. However, there is still likely to be a requirement for at least 500,000 tonnes of Australian rapeseed which at present values is too expensive for import to the EU.

Regards,

Owen

 

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