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OSR Markets flounder despite soya demand

Date Added: 13/12/2013

 

The feature of the last week has been the steep sell-off in Winnipeg canola, as the market has digested the latest Statscan production figure of 17.96 million tonnes. This was higher than initially expected (although higher yields had been widely reported) and significantly higher than last year's figure. In contrast, Chicago soyabeans have been broadly supported, trading at over $13 a bushel in the January and March positions as Chinese demand continues to be a major factor.

Matif oilseed rape has sold off in sympathy with canola but nowhere near to the same extent, Canadian exports are unlikely to occur in to Europe due to GM concerns and anyway, Canadian logistics are struggling with the weight of large wheat crop as well. We therefore expect Canada to have a large carryover, which in the short term is negative to the market. The weight of Canadian seed is also likely to keep pressure on Australian prices, but there again, logistics will probably limit any more exports to Europe until June arrival.

Prices in the UK are now bid at about £290.00 ex farm for December aided by a weaker sterling at £1.186 versus the euro.

Regards,

Owen

 

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