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Traders View 27th April 2012

Date Added: 27/04/2012

Volatile trading week


Oilseed rape prices have shown large swings this week as uncertainties remain over nearby demand and equally further forward supply.


The May 2012 oilseed rape position will close on Monday, so the August 12 position will become the first reference for trading. We expect old crop prices to therefore go to meet new crop prices as there is no significant near term demand for the rapeoil and crush margins continued to be squeezed.


However soya beans are showing a different story, and old crop soya in the US has touched contract highs of $15 a bushel today. South American production is still being downgraded with some commentators now putting the Argentinan crop at 39 million tonnes as frosts are hitting late sown soya crops.


There has also been a downgrade of the EU 2012 harvest potential osr crop, with Strategie Grains now predicting only 17.6 million tonnes as winter kill is now more apparent in France and Southern Germany.


Reductions in supply of soya and EU oilseed rape should prove to keep prices high. But at these levels setbacks are always likely and growers should keep a close eye on price movements.






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