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Market sets back on lack of demand

Date Added: 19/09/2011

 Oilseed rape prices fell back last week as crushers are reluctant to buy both in spot and forward old crop positions.  The spot price of oilseed rape is now back to £360-£365 ex farm.  However there does seem to be a bit more optimism further forward as indicated by the balance of the following bullish and bearish factors;

 

Bullish

 

1.      World supplies of oilseeds and grains will 

            be tight in the2011/12 season resulting in a decline in stocks.

2.      Global stocks/usage ratios of oilseeds, oils & fats aswell as oilmeals will continue to decline in 2011/12 to multiyear lows.

3.      Consumption of oils & fats for biofuels will increase more sharply again in 2011/12, especially for soya oil in leading export countries.

4.      Although palmoil supplies are increasing, demand is potentially increasing at a higher rate due to insufficient supplies of soya and rape oil.

5.      The fight for acres between oilseeds and grains will intensify. As the price competitiveness of soyabeans has suffered relative to corn, this should be price supportive for soyabeans.

 

Bearish

 

1.      Debt problems and financial turmoil

2.      World soyabean supplies in September/Jan 2011/12 are 4 million tonnes higher than one year ago due to high S American stocks.

3.      Tight budgets in Europe & USA may enforce governments to reduce subsidies on biofuel production.

4.      Higher prices and better than normal weather conditions may result in the Southern hemisphere soya plantings and production being higher than forecast.

 

Regards,

 

Owen

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