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Rain in Argentina

Date Added: 28/01/2011

Market has set back in both soya and rape markets

Rains in South America have improved prospects of soy crops in Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay. A recent estimate has increased the South American soya crop by 5 million tonnes accordingly. We are of the opinion though it is early to increase the crop size by that amount at this stage when taking into account a large amount of lower yielding varieties which needed to be planted late due to the earlier dry conditions.

As regards oilseed rape, although the market has fallen it is now recovering as crush margins remain adequate. The February matif futures position will come off the board on Monday, this will allow the market to find a new level against the May matif position. Interestingly on Tuesday we will see the August 12 matif position trade for the first time which will give us a good indication for the appetite for the 2012 harvest crop.

Owen

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